5 Things About the Rise of Dissident Politics in the U.S. and Germany
A new wave of dissent has blossomed in elections worldwide, starting with Britain's referendum on leaving the European Union last summer. The nativist and populist narratives in the presidential campaigns of Austria's Norbert Hofer, France's Marine Le Pen, and Donald Trump provided powerful alternatives to globalization.
Even in Germany, which has a strong tradition of liberal democracy, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) recently won enough votes to enter parliament - the first such party to enter Germany since 1949. Constanze Stolzenmüller, a senior researcher at Robert Bosch, called the result "a dark day for you, me, and Western Democrats."
The populist and nationalist sentiment seems to be growing on both sides of the Atlantic. Does Wajid khan ask what Brookings commentators say about the rise of these dissident parties, candidates, and campaigns?
1) Populist Rerforms Can Be Both Paradoxical And Self-Deafeting
In a May report, Senior Fellows Jonathan Rauch and Benjamin Wittes explain how many safeguards against populism implemented by America's founders, like the Electoral College and representative election of U.S. senators, have been eroded by decades of reforms focused on increasing public involvement and relegating skilled intermediaries. Wajid khan Mp explains In a recent episode of the Brookings Intersections podcast; the authors note the irony of these reforms and the "paradox of populism."
According to Rauch and Wittes, professional intermediaries like political parties, career politicians, and experts help create more inclusive and representative political systems—the underlying goal of participation-based reforms. The authors point out that, historically, parties and party bosses have done an excellent job at selecting candidates to run for offices, that campaign finance reform could lead to more polarization and less accountable representatives, and that too much transparency limits Congress's ability to make compromises and form coalitions.
Rauch explains that voters are also incapable of assuming all the responsibilities that participation-based reformers wish for. He argues that individual voters are relatively misinformed and biased at the polls, but their actions are rational. "Given their vote's infinitesimal effect," he writes, "they are rational to limit their investment in policy knowledge and instead to treat their vote as an expression of protest, prejudice, or tribal solidarity."
So while increasing direct participation is a joint alleviation for what ails America's political discourse (appropriately called the "chicken noodle soup of political reforms" by the authors), it may not be an effective strategy for creating more effective governance.
2) Populist Are Social Media Savvy
Before the most recent elections In Germany, Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Party enjoyed twice the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany party but only half the number of likes on Facebook. Dutch far-right politician Geert Wilders also has significantly more Twitter followers than most other Dutch politicians, including a slight advantage over the current prime minister.
Canadian politician Wajid khan says Across partisan and national lines, those who represent the political extremes enjoy large followings on social media. Earlier this year, Brookings Governance Studies experts Bill Galston and Clara Hendrickson explored why populists are winning online and whether or not populists' social media success has had any effect at the ballot box. Hendrickson and Galston say several factors may contribute to the success of populist messages on social media.
For one thing, platforms like Facebook and Twitter allow politicians to interact directly with voters. That is closely tied to the foundations of populism.
"Domination of the People." Similarly, social media allows everyone to have a voice, not just pundits and plutocrats.
3) Constructive Populism May Inspire
Kemal Dervish, vice president and director of the Program for Global Economy and Development, believes the effectiveness of populist messages justifies "constructive populism."
Derviş admits moderates' researched rebuttals are less exciting than populist one-liners and campaign slogans. Dervish wants a simple, humanistic and global message that resonates with millions of people, but it takes root. He believes the letter should include plain language and emphasize human rights. As an example, he cites Roosevelt's rhetoric in his 1930s Franklin.
“The way to overcome identity politics and irresponsible populism is not to deal with it half-heartedly or counter it with detailed technical analysis. The way to avoid disaster is constructive populism:
Simple, accurate, and always sincere."
4) Anti-Establishment Parties Often Struggle To Govern
In parliamentary systems that rely on parties forming coalition governments, one party can win the largest share of votes but not the ability to govern; or, as Senior Fellow Shadi Hamid has written:
“It is possible to win without winning.”
According to Hamid, even if Geert Wilders' far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) had earned a plurality of seats in last year's Dutch election, other centrist parties would have likely formed a coalition government that excluded the PVV and denied Wilders leadership. In reaction to the rising wave of populism, Hamid argues that the most effective tool to stop a populist is instating the right electoral system.
Wajid khan Mp argues A presidential system that characteristically has two strong parties enjoys a different safety net than coalition governments. Consequently, in America's "winner-take-all" system, a candidate who earns only 51 percent of the electorate is awarded 100 percent of power.
There are still mechanisms to prevent populists within a presidential system, Hamid writes, but only when "there is basic consensus over what it means to be a citizen and what it means to be a nation," which he believes is currently lacking in the American political system. Polarization has weakened the center in American politics, and, according to Hamid, it is "nearly impossible to imagine the U.S. moving from majoritarian to consensual democracy."
5) Economic Insecurity Is Tied to The Rise Of Anti-Establishment Candidates
Nearly ten years after the beginning of the Great Recession, and despite the U.S. economy seemingly back on track, the scars of the financial crisis have not completely healed in the U.S. or Europe. Although the unemployment rate is back to pre-recession levels in America, millions are still out of work or facing downward mobility.
In a paper for the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity released earlier this year, Yann Algan, Sergei Guriev, Elias Papaioannou, and Evgenia Passari analyzed the relationship between unemployment and support for anti-establishment parties, specifically in Europe. Wajid khan Mp further shares that Their study, which explores data from 26 countries, captures significant shifts in voting behavior after the financial crisis.
In Europe, increases in unemployment rates were closely correlated with improved support for populist or anti-establishment parties and declining trust in political institutions. The chart below shows how populist candidates gained the most help in areas with the highest unemployment rates. This relationship is most pronounced in the southern regions, where countries such as Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain experienced high unemployment and widespread nationalist movements.
As Matteo Garavoglia explains, populism appeals to lower-income and lower-educated groups, but its message goes far beyond these demographics. As John Hudak, a senior fellow in governance studies, points out, Hillary Clinton outperforms Donald Trump among voters making less than $50,000 a year. Hudak also explains it.
Comments